By James E. Hansen NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Columbia University Earth Institute
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Extra resources for Can we defuse The Global Warming Time Bomb R20070804E
However, IPCC does not specify the likelihood of the scenarios or examine the direction of current real-world growth rates. 5%/year, thus on a course comparable to our “2°C” scenario for the next few decades. I have argued that achievement of a 1°C scenario would be feasible based on increased emphasis on energy efficiencies, renewable energies, and advanced technologies. However, I am not implying that this “alternative scenario” would be easy to achieve. Indeed, it surely requires concerted world-wide actions.
Constant growth” at the rate of the past three decades falls below the IPCC scenarios, and “constant emissions” falls far below the IPCC scenarios. The dark blue area is the range of “marker” scenarios in the primary IPCC publication (Reference 6a), while the lighter blue area adds the full range of scenarios in the IPCC SRES publication (Reference 6b). The IPCC scenarios that extend far off-scale (high) are impractical to show in entirety with a linear scale, but they do not need to be shown as they are unrealistic.
The (uncaptured) CO2 emissions in both the 2°C and 1°C scenarios must begin to decrease prior to mid-century to achieve stabilization of atmospheric CO2 amount, as agreed in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. To keep additional global warming from exceeding 1°C, which I have argued is the most plausible value for the level of DAI, implies the need for a change in CO2 emission rates at least as dramatic as that of 1973. This will require an unprecedented level of international cooperation.